A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
